- Steven
- Dec 24, 2025
Jumping off from our idea yesterday into more spontaneous patterns has me thinking about momentum in a more pure sense. Movements generated intraday are of course the most pure expression of momentum as these waves have almost no noise. The noiselessness and clean smoothness of its movement suggests its a very pure expression of momentum. In trading intraday our ideas leave being conceptual and morph into much more simple movement. Of course there is no real distinction between the concept and reality, its apparently differences is the illusion of experiencing time linearly when we're in the moment vs condensing hours of days of observation into general concepts when we're not. Today we explore the more simple side of analysis.
Good Trading.
P.S. I have noticed the cursor of my mouse is not being recorded accurately. I will aim to this fix for the next recording.
- Steven
- Dec 23, 2025
We've been discussing some more conceptual ideas underlying system building. Moving from general non-specific understanding to specific behaviour is a clear distinction every trading strategy needs to acknowledge. It lets you freely play with ideas and entertain possibilities in one area while only executing on a clear set of rules that are predetermined. The predetermination is necessary for measurement and testing. We must have a set of rules defined precisely enough so that any trader who understands them will behave the same. From our expectations yesterday we've discovered (possibly) a new pattern that might carry predictive weight. This pattern must be turned into a clear signal with defined boundaries. Then there must be some clear consequences when we observe the signal, usually behaviour (taking a position in the market).
The new signal we're tentatively including with the rest involves two waves of volatility significantly above average generated in a row in the same direction. There are some nuances that have yet to be discussed; the overlap with our other signals. For example when we generate a wave that breaks a high this event carries a probability. A wave of volatility might also break a high so we need to distinguish between these events and recognise when they are both occurring at once. We generate other opposing signals inbetween these waves, does this change the situation? All these differences will be slowly resolved as we experiment with this new pattern and acquire experience using it. I cannot say if it will be kept or discarded at this present moment but my intuition is telling me this pattern does capture some probability.
Good Trading.
- Steven
- Dec 22, 2025
We analyzed one pair in todays update. I feel this stream-of-consciousness longer format does the pair more justice than our quick and rather shallow analysis we're use to. We have the time to move through all the relevant ideas, the patterns we're using, some historical examples of these patterns, the logic that led us to order things the way we have and speculations about how our system might yet still grow and develop. It is by being in close proximity to these concepts that you absorb them and can generate from here your own conclusions.
Good Trading.