Thinking Through Probabilities
- Steven
- 2 days ago
- 1 min read
Continuing the ideas from our last update since noticing these two separate probabilities. It appears to be, as we've concluded today, to be sourced in two different places. One set of probabilities is generated directly from s/r and supply and demand, the other set is measured to be present across a series of waves. These waves themselves may or may not be produced directly from s/r. The kind of predictions we can make from either starting position are quite different. The ways these two different sources interact and interfere with each other becomes an extremely important skill to develop. The possible places we can find alignment is something we're exploring now.
The ways these two probabilities interfere is a phenomena we've already encountered and delt with through other means. That top-down bottom-up distinction captures some large amount of this difference inherently. The differences between momentum and rotation captures some also. Our historic dislike of pending orders can be explained as a consequence of being blind to what we're trading for when we take pending orders and how and why it works. These reasons are quite different to our standard aligned fractal s-wave setups.
Good trading.
