Weekly Analysis 10th Nov

Aussie/$

Daily bullish trend. Bearish momentum on 4hr held by upper decending trend line off 1st Nov highs. Fresh bullishness only just now being established off the Friday lows. 0.6540 is a critical obstacle and possible pivot point.

$/Yen

Analysis failed to include a very important bearish trend line pulled from the July highs of 2024 and January highs of 2025. The inclusion of this trend line drastically changes our analysis with shorts at the 78.6 fib around 154.00 whole number being critical.

$/Canada

Expected consolidation to develop around 1.4100 due to conflicting ideas. Our bias is to the downside with an eventual bearish breakout being the most likely outcome.

$/Swiss

A few ideas that might work. There is considerable pressure into 0.8075, which holds momentum. A large movement in either direction is possible from this level. Including slightly larger structure 0.8150 becomes our level that holds momentum and similar ideas can work here also.

Pound/$

The uncertainty around whether price ever broke below the daily trend line plays a role in traders perceptions this week. Finding support at the trend line at 1.3135 could develop into a good bullish movement as correct back to some fib level. A deeper test of this level is necessary before such a move is likely.

Europe/$

Somewhat clear environment with 1.1590 being the key area for multiple reasons. Whilst price is rising we will waiting. When we see bearish candles develop on larger time frames (12hr, daily) we will be close in time to our planned short.

Good Trading.

Weekly Analysis 2nd Nov

The pound/aussie analysis from Thursday developed roughly as expected. The week ended developing a similar but much larger pattern. The same idea is at play here with a new area for our expected lower highs.

Usd/chf

Currently testing a trend line, which we will be observing closely for at least a day.

Aussie/dollar

Bounced from an upper trend line last week around 0.6600 whole number, which lies on the 78 fib. This is a nice area of confluence to look for a retest this week.

Dollar/cad

Tested the highs just under 1.3900 last week. Friday slowed which might be moving toward a lower high off 1.4030. A higher low is necessary before we get involved in any longs here. The deeper the pullback of this higher low the better.

Pound/dollar

Broke through a lower trend line end of last week. Looking for a quick pullback to these lines from underneath for possible shorts riding the continued momentum that could sustain itself into Monday and Tuesday. Upon a deeper pullback, which also seems likely, we have our sights set on 1.3300 and nearby technicals.

Dollar/yen

The interaction with this weekly trend line has the potential to form over multiple weeks. This likely means our only positions will be trading unwinding moves off the trend line. The previous high serves as an example for the kind of movement we might expect this week. We do not expect price to make any long term decision about the future of this pair this week.

Euro/dollar

The recent bearish wave has intrinsic quality given its particular characteristics. It has good volatility, produced off a set of lower high tops (roughly) and moving through 1.1590, a key area supporting bullish momentum. The consolidation that will be produced off this wave is likely going to lead into a decent move one way or the other. It is this consolidation we are waiting for and will monitor for opportunities.

Good Trading.

Exploring Fundamentals

It's always good to go through fundamentals thoughtfully and slowly, building a picture and defining all the patterns present in the moment. Most of the time our efforts will not be converted into a tradable opportunity. On some occasions (and we only need one) we do find an opportunity of sufficient quality and likely also our profit for the week will been made.

Good Trading.