- Steven
- Jan 15
We walk through the structure present on some pairs. Its becoming difficult to say what is likely to occur given the state of structure. In fact I think its not actually possible to determine from structure anything about the future of price. The events we look for are not predictable but rather need to be observed occuring in real time. It is these events that cause price to move with a probability that is increased or decreased relative to the constructive or destructive alignment of structure.
We came across another idea today analysing our gbp/usd situation that I discuss in the short follow up video below. A more concrete form of knowledge contrasted to criticality. This mixing of structure and momentum into an entirely new form feels like such a leap even though upon reflection I do not see any holes in the logic. It must be true and therefore we will be adding this pattern to our toolbox.
Good Trading.
- Steven
- Jan 13
I am travelling at the moment with my laptop which has a camera so I thought i'd add video to this analysis. Progressing with our ideas I've found that in bouncing back and forth between in interpretations generates a feeling or intuition about the setup as a whole. Being driven to figure out the mechanisms behind our thinking is just as interesting to me as using the ideas to make trading decisions. Although this is a trading blog and I should be more concerned with using the ideas I find my thinking naturally demands answers to the deeper questions. Why criticality works? What am I estimating when I compare the strength of each interpretation to each other? What are financial markets really when trading success doesn't require us to know what the system itself actually is. That we are tracking price movements appears to be irrelevant for the success or validity of these ideas.
Some of the broader philosophical questions are touched upon, mostly to give me some framework for my conclusions. Again a lot of our recent ideas have progressed a few more steps, although they might be difficult to see. Our three analysed pairs will provide necessary feedback for us to continue trying to understand criticality in financial markets.
Good Trading.
- Steven
- Jan 11
No analysis today. This video is a stream of consciousness talking out my ideas to myself that I am currently processing.
We discuss our momentum and volatility ideas as they continue their development into the field of criticality. The notion of criticality I've come to realize is how structure and momentum together create the system we call 'financial markets'. This system oscillating between disorder and order sometimes stabilizes in the middle at 'criticality' where a lot of interesting activity occurs, including fractalization. So much of our already developed strategy involves finding, measuring and trading price close to this line. Where previously we were a market participant, although we felt some degree removed or transcended from the herd now it appears we have moved further as we acquire a more conscious understanding of our place within the system and therefore an understanding of what we are and what the system is.
As mentioned towards the end there is a beautiful idea buried in here that consciousness itself is fundamentally the edge in all trading strategies. It appears to be something else, something specific and measurable but across all the strategies that work, and along the spectrum of strategies that are better and worse it is consciousness in the end that is the only edge that actually exists. All these specific versions are expressions of consciousness. Of course this is just speculation. It's a beautiful way of understanding how the pieces fit together it does not mean this is how they actually do.
Good Trading.