Hey, we are adjusting our strategy moving forward towards trading the higher quality opportunities exclusively. There are a series of conditions or signals we look for that add probability to the underlying movement. A certain collection of signals might be profitable on average but the best collection, which occurs rarely, are very profitable on average. Being restricted to trading 5% of our account limits the potential of these quality opportunities. There are many unequal distributions in trading and outcomes of trading setups are one such distribution. That quality setups are of higher probability and magnitude ought to be met with more leverage. This is our assumption and illustrates the main changes we're making to our strategy moving forward.
Good Trading.
Hey, it's been a few weeks since ive posted here. Travel and other interests have taken up much of my time this last month. Trading has not been forgotten, in fact a direct consequence of my experiences nagivating the investor/capital allocator world has transformed how I think about currency markets. There are some new much simpler ideas (at least to me) that, from a first principles approach, builds a strategy that set-by-set that requires at no part any great understanding or ability to recognize patterns in the way my previous strategy inadvertently required. The simplicity was achieved by realizing what the currency market is NOT. Namely, that it is not and will never be a place where value is stored but rather a medium through which value itself flows on its path from one asset to another.
The full working set of ideas is explained entirely on bitcoin. No analysis for future trades was done. Ill likely update this blog later in the week with trade ideas using the new strategy.
Good Trading.
Analysis of the eur/kiwi, bitcoin and crude for the coming week. Putting together a few simple ideas, aligning some probabilities and we find the nearby trade ideas for these pairs. Bitcoin closed a 6hr candle in an s-wave that, after acknowledging the risks associated from the lack of confirmation, we placed a small position on with the 2x leverage our traditional account provides. Many defi brokerage platforms offer up to 50x perhaps more. I might place a position on these exchanges as well.
Good trading.