- Steven
- Feb 6
Our trading idea on the eurnzd has since concluded. Our analysis was largely accurate and produced a good trade for this week. A position with a risk of around 20pips currently sitting at 92 that is still alive with potential to move further.
Why did we expect the upper trend line + fib zone to be a good area to expect a lower high? The recent lower-low wave before the large news related rally began the start of the structure. The volatility with which we retested the highs and rejected signals price is now more bearish than previously. After the bearish wave produced from these highs we then expect logically that if price is growing in bearishness it should on this wave finally produce its first lower-high. And where is a likely place for that to develop? Well what s/r do we have this this area? The trend-line and the fib zone. The technicals are important but the market itself interpreted through the most recent series of highs and lows needs to also be suggesting it will do what the technicals will then support it to do.
The lower trend line around 1.8350 up to the daily close lows at 1.8375 provide a decent resistance area we can expect to look for another short on this pair.
Good Trading.
- Steven
- Feb 4
The USD gapped Monday open invalidating a lot of our analysis from the weekend. I will be leaving these pairs for a few days until the meaning of the gap becomes more clear until then I've decided to post a trading idea for the eur/nzd cross.
We have reasons supporting a view price will breakout to the upside and to the downside. These reasons will be validated or invalidated slowly as we move to test the upper trend line and develop more structure. These reasons we are tracking slowly as price develops will lead us to our trading position. Often its the case that both positions can be taken because the opportunity that is produced from these reasons falls at different moments in time. That the reasons synchronize with reality in different moments lets both opposing perspectives be correct for some brief period of time. A period of time we're hoping to identify accurately.
Good Trading.
- Steven
- Feb 2
The USD is showing signs of turning around and resuming its previous bullish trend. We need to see a higher low and higher high before we will be comfortable taking long positions. This current bullish wave, whilst lacking in confirmation may still produce opportunities. Its in the realm of chance one of these positions runs into the trend continuation.
A certain vigilance is necessary when trading amongst uncertainty (lacking context or confirmation). These positions must be monitored actively and closed off should its behaviour fall outside the bounds of 'typical'. I leave the estimation of what is 'typical' to you. Its not something I can decide for you. It is something you personally obtain a feel for through observation. The best way of acquiring a 'feel' is to execute many identical trades and watch how they all unfold. Across that experience you will come to know what typical paths a position takes from some standard entry.
Good Trading.