There are some ideas that have been marching towards a synthesis - or at least that's been our agenda with them. Reconciling the differences between difference facets of our model into one more complete universal picture is slow going. Exactly how it is that it can be known beforehand that there are ideas ripe and waiting or that some future idea has ripened considerably even if we don't yet know what it will be is a mystery. In the wandering we've found some small edges with width enough to grip and leverage to move so now we've walked away with a few changes to our model. These changes feel good and true but I suppose only time will tell how accurate we were.
Good Trading.
Encountering the obvious limitations of our bottom-up momentum chasing strategy defines an edge that puts the strategy in some perspective. The further we move into either strategy to the exclusion of the other the more at risk we are for serious oversights. There is valuable information in our top-down approach unobtainable by even the most thorough and intelligence observation bottom-up. So today we're analyzing from top-down (I need to decide for proper terminology when referring to this perspective) to recoup our losses from yesterday, where we will pick up with our momentum live trades thereafter.
Good Trading.
The gold trade we found today is very instructive in a few ways. Firstly; the exact meaning and expression of the ideas may vary. We discovered only afterwards how accurate we were, able to look back and see which waves we expected to see and where they ended up being having moved out of time. Secondly; being nimble in taking a loss and keeping objectivity itself provides a huge opportunity. As its often the case when price unfolds in unexpected ways many people suffer losing trades. These trades weigh on their psyche and when now opportunity has arrived and action is called for, everyone is still licking their woulds and mulling over their failures. Of course paying no attention to failure and marching onward blindly is even more foolish, so i would say there is a balance between those two only discoverable through personal experience. Thirdly; the 'probability cost' of all trading decisions is itself a learnt skill. That we might close profit whever we feel like it, open positions whenever we feel like it, what sort of model ought to be used to help direct our decisions towards the better answers?
When we sat in some profit, acknowledging that we would gladly give it all up to participate in the next wave is such a probability cost estimation. Closing off profits at every decision point would indicate a personality unsuited for trading. Risk must be taken or else why speculate at all? If we shall take risks, which ones are worthwhile? When everyone is attempting to take worthwhile risks, how can we out compete the crowd? The crowd itself will never be beaten if you value their thinking more than your own. In speculation as opposed to investing, the crowd must be beaten to profit. I cannot imagine a strategy that doesn't fundamentally rely on beating the crowd. In investing this is very much not necessary, a perfectly average performance in the stock market can make any man very wealthy. This is not the case in speculation because the average trader makes wrong decisions and loses more than they win.
Good Trading