Analysis 3rd March

I skipped last weeks analysis video. I needed a small break although I still did watch the markets I wasn't so involved. This week I thought it a good opportunity to return to our fundamentals. Certainly there are many successful trading strategies out there and many general rules that reach system holds above the others. Concerning our strategy here there are three pieces of information that seem to me to be absolutely fundamental.

1. The recent waves of volatility.

2. The recent most obvious & significant highs and lows

3. The recent victories (bearish & bullish)

The markets is a very confusing place. It is always going to be confusing, that is part of the difficulty. Sitting with a certain amount of confusion comfortably and not allowing your uneasiness to provoke irrational behaviour is one of the greatest skills for getting and keeping profits. Patience under these conditions, especially during periods of multiple losses has more impact over your returns than all the technical knowledge you could possible acquire about the markets. This is why it's often stated that trading is 95% psychological. It is not the smartest or quickest that succeeds long term. It's the one who keeps his mind while everyone else is losing theirs. That is probably true generally in most things it is however specifically relevant to the markets. The markets happens to be a place where it seems hard to imagine anyone ever had a clear mind at all.

The importance of fundamentals is to know what you can know and also know most of the time it isn't enough to act on. All that ground that needs to be covered between the fundamentals and executing an order is often an experience of uncertainty and uneasiness. This drives everyone mad. Mostly it only catches you when you aren't watching, when you are not aware. So, be aware. Know what you can know. These are the fundamentals. Know when you cross from definitions into speculation. Make every decision conscious. Admit to your uncertainty. You'll find mixed in with that experience another one quite a bit more positive. The feeling of probability. The odds of success. The quality of a given setup.

Good Trading

Weekly Analysis

We had a good $/cad trade last week I hope we all caught. There was some flexibility around the entry and some management decisions as it progressed from that Wednesday close. This week we have some new fresh ideas to consider for the USD crosses. Many ideas are quite large and will require more than a week to develop but some have the potential to set up this week.

If the USD feels slow and boring (which I completely understand) then you can look to analyze other pairs and see if there are opportunities lurking elsewhere. There is an interesting idea on the eur/jpy and gbp/jpy that maybe you can figure out yourselves. That's my only hint to you guys.

Good Trading.

Analysis 10th Feb

The gap on the USD pairs has settled and some picture has begun to emerge from the dust. We are looking for the USD to resume its bullish trend in the near future. It could be today (Monday) or it could be after one more bearish wave that tests some support areas; perhaps the lows, perhaps a fib. This expectation for the USD colours our perspectives on all the crosses. Apart from the usdcad and usdjpy we will be expecting USD strength.

Good Trading.